Global economy to slow down but likely avoid recession in 2024

The key major and popular banks in this world are expecting international economic or financial growth that could ease again in the year 2024. It is also well squeezed and reduced by the enhanced rate of interest. So, it could be said that if the energy prices are higher and also where there is a steep slowdown in two biggest economies of the world.

The International economy is even forecasted to improve 2.9% during this year, however Reuters poll also showed, with the growth of the year which is also now slowing down to 2.6%.

There are many economists who expect the International economy to avoid recession, though have also flagged some of the possibilities related to "mild recessions" in the UK and in Europe.

Also, the soft-landing for United States still remains on cards, even though indecision around monetary tightening of the Federal Reserve and its path clouds this outlook. The growth of China is also seen to be quite weakening, and also exacerbated by the companies who are looking for the alternative production destinations that are quite cost efficient.

Following are forecasts from major global banks:

Real GDP growth forecasts for 2024
Goldman Sachs2.60%2.10%4.80%0.90%0.6%6.3%
Morgan Stanley2.80%1.90%4.20%0.50%-0.1%6.4%
BofA Global Research2.8%1.4%4.8%0.50%0.1%5.7%

U.S. inflation (annual Y/Y for 2024)Federal funds target rate (Dec '24)
Headline CPICore PCE
Goldman Sachs2.40%2.60%5.13%
Morgan Stanley2.10%2.70%4.375%
Wells Fargo2.50%2.60%4.75%-5.00%
BofA Global Research2.80%

The Fed's main rate currently stands at 5.25%-5.50%.

S&P 500 targetUS 10-year yield targetEUR/USDUSD/JPYUSD/CNY
Goldman Sachs47004.55%1.10150.007.15
Morgan Stanley4500
Wells Fargo4600-48004.75%-5.25%1.08-1.12136-140
BofA Global Research50004.25%1.151426.90
Deutsche Bank1.10135

As of 1301 GMT on Nov. 22, 2023:

Data Table from:

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